Next May, London voters choose their borough councillors for a further four years. This is the 14th time the boroughs in their present shape, created in 1965, have gone to the polls. Yet in all the frequent ups and downs of party fortunes, it is surprising actually how little change has ended up taking place in the leadership of London’s boroughs.
In 1964, the first elections for the current boroughs, the Conservatives had 676 councillors elected, Labour 1112. In 2014, the latest elections, Conservatives had 612 and Labour 1060. The Liberals/Liberal Democrats went from 17 to 116, and others 55 to 63. The number of boroughs run by Conservatives and Labour has stayed the same: 9 Conservative and 20 Labour. Not much seems to have happened.
The vote shares have shifted more, but mainly to reflect the rise in 2014 of UKIP and the consequent fall in the Conservative and Labour shares.
So can we assume the 2018 election will deliver little change? It is too early to be definitive, but we can highlight the key pointers to watch. The first is whether Labour’s general election success in London carries through to the borough polls. Labour’s national poll standing is holding up well, with the Conservatives weakening.
The catch, however, is turnout: the relatively high turnout in London in 2017 included younger voters and others who were enticed to vote Labour in the general election, but may well not have the same incentive to go to the polls in a local election. However, Labour also did very well in the borough elections of 2014 -- so there is no reason to expect any shift against them, with possibly a further modest improvement from a high base.
Second, the Conservatives’ weak overall standing in post-general election opinion polling is likely to carry through to next May. This means they are under heavy challenge in formally rock solid boroughs. Current indications are that Labour could do particularly well in traditional Conservative strongholds Wandsworth and Kensington & Chelsea, whilst marginal boroughs like Barnet could turn red.
Third, there is evidence of long term demographic change in a number of outer London boroughs starting to have an impact on voting behaviour. This has been visible to some extent in mayoral and general elections, but has yet to show up in the overall outcome of borough elections. If it does so in 2018, it will strengthen Labour’s long term position in the outer boroughs.
Fourth, will the UKIP vote collapse, compared to 2014, as it did between the 2015 and 2017 general elections? And could the Liberal Democrats experience a modest London rise? Probably and possibly.
Fifth, are there any special individual borough features which means their results could buck or exaggerate an overall trend? Undoubtedly, this is feasible: Tower Hamlets, where the independent elected mayor has switched to Labour since 2015; Kensington & Chelsea, in the aftermath of the Labour success in the general election in the north of the Borough and the Grenfell Tower disaster; and Richmond upon Thames, where there could well be a substantial Liberal Democrat revival in the aftermath of their general election results in the local constituencies.
The 2018 Borough council elections will come in the middle of a continuing period of substantial political uncertainly, including continuing Brexit negotiations – whose economic impact is so important for London – and a weakened Government after the 2017 general election. These factors and the longer term political and population trends will combine to deliver far greater uncertainty than usual in the run up to polling day.
Tony Halmos is a visiting professor in the Policy Institute at King’s College London and director of the King’s Commission on London. He is also an associate at Newington Communications, contributing to the firm’s elections website.Related Articles
The latest instalment of our series, in which we use the Centre for Cities’ data tools to crunch some of the numbers on Britain’s cities.
Between the dark web, Breitbard News and Donald Trump's Twitter feed, it's abundantly clear that terrible things often happen on the internet. But good things happen here, too - like funny videos and kitten pictures and, though we say so ourselves, CityMetric.
Anyway. The government clearly believes the internet is on balance a good thing, so it's investing more in improving Britain's broadband coverage. But which cities need the most work?
Luckily, those ultrafast cats at the Centre for Cities are on hand with a map of Britain's ultrafast broadband coverage, as it stood at the end of 2016. It shows the percentage of premises which have access to download speeds of 100Mbps or more. Dark green means loas, pale yellow means hardly any. Here's the map:
This doesn't quite fit the pattern we normally get with these exercises in which the south of England and a few other rich cities (Edinburgh, Aberdeen, York) look a lot healthier than the cities of the Midlands, South Wales and the North.
There are elements of that, sure: there are definitely more southern cities with good coverage, and more northern onse without it. But there are notable exceptions to the pattern, too. Those cities with very good coverage include Middlesbrough (88.0 per cent) and Dundee (89.4 per cent), not normally to be found near the top of anyone's rankings.
Meanwhile, Milton Keynes - a positive boom town, on most measures - lingers right near the bottom of the chart, with just 12.9 per cent coverage. The only city with worse coverage is another city that normally ranks as rich and succesful: the Socttish oil capital Aberdeen, where coverage is just 0.13 per cent, a figure so low it rings alarm bells about the data.
Here's a (slightly cramped) chart of the same data.
If you can spot a patten, you're a better nerd than I.
One thought I had was that perhaps there might be some correlation with population: perhaps bigger cities, being bigger markets, find it easier to get the requisite infrastructure built.
I removed London, Manchester and Birmingham from the data, purely because those three - especially the capital - are so much bgiger than the other cities that they make the graph almost unreadable. That don't, here's the result.
So, there goes that theory.
In all honesty, I'm not sure what could explain this disparity: why Sheffield and Southand should have half the broadband coverage of Middlesbrough or Brighton. But I suspect it's a tempory measure.
All this talk of ultranfast broadband (100Mbps+), after all, superseded that of mere superfast broadband (just 24Mbps+). The figures in this dataset are 10 months old. It's possible that many of the left behind cities have caught up by now. But it's almost certain we'll be hearing about the need for, say, Hyperfast broadband before next year is out.
Jonn Elledge is the editor of CityMetric. He is on Twitter as @jonnelledge and also has a Facebook page now for some reason.Related Articles
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ISLAMABAD: People between ages of 18 and 36 years will play a decisive role in the next general elections because they constitute 44 per cent of registered voters across the county, latest data of electoral rolls show.
The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) updated latest electoral rolls on its website, declaring 97.02 million to be total number of voters.
Another five million voters would be added to this list once ECP completed verification of new CNIC holders, ECP officials said.
More than 10 million new voters have been added since the 2013 general elections.
In 2013, there were 86 million people registered in the voters’ list.
ECP officials anticipate the number to cross 100-million mark by next general elections, due to be held in August next year.
As many as 54.6 million (or 56 per cent) are men and 42.42 million (or 44 per cent) are women, depicting an unnatural gender gap of 12 per cent.
It is estimated that more than 12.17 million women of 18 years or above – who are otherwise eligible to be registered as voters – are not included in the voter list.
The primary reason for this discrepancy is that they do not have Computerised National Identity Cards (CNICs), which is compulsory for enlisting in the electoral lists.
Election authorities are planning to launch a national public awareness campaign soon to encourage all people, who are eligible to be registered as voters, to get CNICs and register themselves as voters.
ECP would be holding National Voters’ Day on December 7 this year.
This year, women would be encouraged to get registered as voters and turn up to cast their votes in elections.
Under the Elections Act of 2017, if women voting in any constituency was less than 10 per cent of total votes polled, the ECP would annul the results and call a re-election.
Most significant aspect of updated voter list is 14.69 million (or 15 per cent of the total) are between the ages of 18 and 25, while 27.69 million (or 29 per cent) are between the ages of 26 and 36. These two age groups constitute 44 per cent of total registered voters.
There are 20.32 million (or 21 per cent of the total voters) between the ages of 36 and 45. These three age groups constitute more than 64 per cent of the total number of voters.
According to data, there are 14.84 million (or 15 per cent) between ages of 46 and 55, 9.89 million between ages of 56 and 65 (or 10 per cent) and people above 65 years of age are just 9.55 million (or 10 per cent) registered voters.
Punjab, with 148 National Assembly seats, overwhelmingly dominates in electoral rolls having a total of 55.82 million (or 57.53 per cent) of total registered voters.
In Punjab, 8.5 million (or 15 per cent of the 55.82 million) voters fall under 18-25 age group, while 15.45 million (or 28 per cent) are in 26-35 age group, which again amounts to nearly 43 per cent of voters in the province.
ECP data shows that 11.62 million (or 21 per cent) of all voters in Punjab fall in 36-45 age group, 8.7 million in 46-55 age group, nearly 5.66 million in 56-65 age group and 5.77 million voters are above 65 years of age.
Meanwhile, Sindh has 20.644 million, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 14.01 million, Balochistan 3.7 million, FATA 2.1 million and Islamabad 690,000 voters.Recommended Stories
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Republicans may hold a majority in both the House and Senate; however, they shouldn’t get too comfortable especially if they continue to fail to deliver on the promises they made to their supporters throughout the entirety of former President Barack Obama’s eight years in office.
In a new CNN poll, it was revealed Democrats might have a chance at taking back the House. The poll showed Democrats had a 14 percent lead. CNN reported:
‘Amid that Republican divide, the poll also finds Democrats holding a lead in the generic congressional ballot — 51% to 37% overall, driven by a unified base of Democrats…’
Of course, almost all Democrats polled claimed they would vote for a Democratic candidate; however, 88 percent of Republicans polled said they would vote for a GOP candidate.
So far, Republicans in Congress have been unable to deliver on some of Trump’s major promises to Americans during the 2016 election. After years of promising their base they would repeal and replace Obamacare and finally having a president who would sign it into law, they have failed after several attempts at giving some sort of solution to the American people. Trump was forced to enact an executive order to deliver something to Republican voters who are growing tired of the antics.
Also, 63 percent of Republicans trusted Trump more on dealing with the issues. Compared to the 29 percent who trusted Congressional Republicans, Republican senators and representatives should start preparing for the 2018 elections now.
Additionally, the poll found Trump’s approval rating on handling different issues has dropped. For instance, his approval rating for his response to the last three devastating hurricanes to hit the U.S. dropped from 64 percent to 44 percent. That 20 percent drop occurred all in one month. That drop could be attributed to Trump’s poor response to Hurricane Maria’s devastating effect on Puerto Rico.
When asked how people felt things were in the country, 51 percent of voters felt things were going “pretty/very badly.” It was found that only 72 percent of Republicans felt things were going well in the country.
The people who feel that Trump’s policies will lead the country in the right direction has also dropped. In March, it was about 50/50. However, only 38 percent feel his policies would steer America in the right direction while 56 percent feel his policies would be detrimental to Americans.
According to CNN, the methodology for the poll was:
‘The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS by telephone October 12 to 15 among a random national sample of 1,010 adults. The margin of sampling error for results among the full sample is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.’
These numbers can give Democrats some measure of hope that they can take back a majority in Congress. However, Democrats must continue to unite on the issues rather than give in to infighting within the party. With a united Democratic front, it is entirely possible Democrats can win back more seats and finally be able to offer a line of defense against the president’s ridiculous policies and antics.
Featured image by Tom Pennington/Getty Images.
Gujarat Elections 2017 Opinion Polls and Exit Poll Results: While Legislative Assembly or Vidhan Sabha elections of the five states which include the Uttar Pradesh and Punjab has been conducted in the first quarter of 2017 and Vidhan Sabha term is for five years. The last time in Gujarat the Elections were held in 2 phases for 182 assemblies seats/constituencies, the first on 13 December and second on 17 December 2012 and now the 5 year term to expire and the election commission announces the date of the polling so that the people of the Gujarat who are above the 18 years with the Voter ID card or other proof whichever accepted for the voting can be used to elect their chief minister again through their MLA’s in 2017/2018.
Gujarat Vidhan Sabha Elections 2017 Surveys, Polls and Exit Polls: MLA is a representative selected by a Legislative Assembly who is elected by the people. The majority of the MLA’s in the Assembly which forms a party will have the power to choose their CM or Chief Minister. Narendra Modi who is the current prime minister of India had already been the Chief Minister of the state of Gujarat winning from the Maninagar constituency. Gujarat have 26 Parliamentary Constituencies whereas Assembly Constituencies whereas Bharatiya Janata Party is the current ruling party in the Gujarat and Indian National Congress (INC) is in the opposition. Gujarat Vidhan Sabha Elections 2018 (if held in 2018). Opinion polls are the opinion of the people conducted by various media agencies whereas the exit poll means the survey conducted after the voter has voted and come out of the polling booth.
Gujarat Assembly Vidhan Sabha Elections 2017 Opinion Polls | Exit Polls & Survey Results – AAP, BJP, Congress and Other Parties
The above opinion poll is conducted by the Indiatrendingnow where the values for Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) and Indian National Congress (INC) are take, and the expected seats for the other parties like Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP), Janata Dal (United) JD(U) and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), etc. are put by the undecided and others opinion/projections. Although more surveys can be conducted before the elections (‘Chunav’ or ‘Chunao’) and wait till more information is updated later.Gujarat Assembly Elections 2017 Exit Polls Results – AAP, BJP, Congress and Other
Exit poll data is collected after the voter has voted. There are some news agencies like VDPAssociates, ABP Nielson, C-Voter and many more There are even some other news agencies like News 24, Chanakya, ABP News, Times Now (English), NDTV or NDTV India, Aaj Tak, India Today, Total TV, News 18, India TV, CNN-IBN, IBN 7, First Post, Zee News, News Nation, News X and many more. Let us see on the voting day which political party will win the majority of the 92 or more than that seats to form the government in the state of Gujarat.Who Will Win Gujarat Assembly Elections 2017 / 2018 & Who Will be the Chief Minister?
The party with the majority seats with or without alliance will have the power to select their CM, although it’s an MLA or of the party from the same state, some polls are also conducted on the basis of ‘Who is the most preferable CM of the Gujarat’, ‘Who will win Gujarat Elections/Polls?’ and there are some parties who will announce their CM candidate before the polls and some will after the polls as this could be the election strategy or something else. Just stay tuned with us to get more information on elections, follow our another page ‘All India Word‘ to get more updates, news and much more on Elections and Politics etc.29 thoughts on “ Gujarat Elections 2017 Opinion Polls | Exit Polls Results – AAP, BJP, Congress ”
New Gujarat chief minister
Hardik patel. Lol in your dreams.. He used our patidar samaj n still using.. Agent of congress..
We patidar were with Bjp n will b with Bjp.. After election tera kya hoga re hardik mendak
Shree Vijaybhai Rupani
Congress government is better for growth rate of India and farmer as well as middle class people.
BJP will win with 145+ seats🇮🇳🇮🇳🇮🇳
jai ho Congress Zindabad
Congress will win
Bjp will get 135+ seats and Rupani saheb will be CM
Bjp win 115 seat
BJP LOSSES Seats then 2012, Though BJP get succes to build govt.
BJP will win 150 plus seats. Jay Jay Modi, Ghar Ghar Modi.
congress is better for middle class
BJP will get 105+ , congress less then 25.
Congress will collapsed
Congress will get 105—115
BJP 60 —-65. ( AS PER RSS EXIT POLL BJP WILL GET 60TO 65 SETS )
A lot has changed from then to now. The survey was conducted in 2016 and Congress suffering without proper leader might affect them.
Bjp105 congress 78
Congress Will Win,After 22 years of rule if modi is still saying that he will end poverty in 2022 then Gujrat will Vote For Change or Gujratis are ghaliz………
aap will change in gujrat poll . it will defeat bjp…near about 30 to 50 seats..
Congress 130+ bjp 45+ and other 5 or less bjp totally loss in rurel areas where farmers patidar and dalit effected and offcorce merchants and govt service persons also against tham Gujarat is totally against bjp .. INC win
You can’t fool all the people all the time..
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